BUSI 405 Quiz 2 Moving Averages and Exponential Smoothing solutions complete answers

BUSI 405 Quiz 2 Moving Averages and Exponential Smoothing solutions complete answers 

 

Which of the following is true concerning the smoothing parameter (α) used in exponential smoothing?

 

Which method is used to develop a simple model that assumes that weighted averages of past periods are the best predictors of the future?

 

In the Winters model shown above, index 1 refers to calendar month 1 in the data.

 

Which of the following is a factor in the decision to use exponential smoothing rather than moving-average smoothing to forecast a given time series?

 

The same benefits/criticisms apply to moving average and exponential smoothing with the exception of

 

In using moving-average smoothing to generate forecasts, a three-month moving average will be preferred to a six-month moving average

 

"Events" in an Event model could include

 

An exponential smoothing technique that adds a trend smoothing constant to the single-parameter exponential smoothing technique is known as

 

In the Winters model above, "Decomposition Type"

 

Which method uses an arithmetic mean to forecast the next period?

 

Given demands, D1 = 20, D2 = 16, and D3 = 12, what is F5 using the naïve forecasting method?

 

Holt's model accounts for any growth factor present in a time series by

 

The Slutsky-Yule effect

 

The Winters model above

 

With which type of time-series data should moving-average smoothing methods produce the best forecasts?

 

The "L" independent variable in the growth models we examined represents

 

Which of the following is not a major problem with exponential smoothing?

 

If a three-month moving-average model is used, what is the forecast for period 4?

 

A simple-centered 3-point moving average of the time-series variable Xt is given by:

 

If a smoothing constant of .3 is used, what is the exponentially smoothed forecast for period 4?

 

The first 23 observations in a data set involving the mortality of medflies is shown above. The column titled “living” indicates the number of living flies in each day of the experiment.

 

Consider that you wish to predict the outcome of the experiment only ten days into the experiment. That is, you wish to forecast when the last medfly will expire. You do so with the model shown above.

 

The Model used to estimate the above medfly model was probably

 

Consider the Bass model results shown below:

 

This model predicts percentage of adoptions over time for a particular product. The results show

 

Which of the following is not correct concerning choosing the appropriate size of the level smoothing constant (α or alpha) in the simple exponential smoothing model?

 

The above equation is used to estimate a Gompertz curve. The "L" in the equation refers to

 

"Index 1" in the GAP results must refer to what time period?

 

Growth models like those used in ForecastX usually model situations well where a process grows

 

When using growth curves such as the Gompertz model or the Logistics model,

 

A portion of the estimate using ForecastX for forecasting GAP sales is shown. Keep in mind that the first quarter appearing in the data is calendar quarter 1. "Index 4" of 1.33 means

 

The first 23 observations in a data set involving the mortality of medflies is shown above. The column titled “living” indicates the number of living flies in each day of the experiment.

 

Consider that you wish to predict the outcome of the experiment only ten days into the experiment. That is, you wish to forecast when the last medfly will expire. You do so with the model shown above.

 

When specifying the model used above, some limits were probably set by the forecaster. These would probably have been

 

When forecasting the adoption of cellular telephones with the Bass Model,

 

What factors do the five data smoothing techniques presented in Chapter Three have in common?

  

Time series smoothing techniques work best for applications where

 

Time-series smoothing techniques attempt to

 

A simple-centered 3-point moving average of the time-series variable Xt is given by:

 

Which of the following is not a problem with moving-average forecasting?

 

With which type of time-series data should moving-average smoothing methods produce the best forecasts?

 

In using moving-average smoothing to generate forecasts, a three-month moving average will be preferred to a six-month moving average

 

Moving-average smoothing may lead to misleading inference when applied to

 

Which method uses an arithmetic mean to forecast the next period?

 

Some drawbacks to using centered moving-average smoothing models include:

 

Which forecasting model assumes that the pattern exhibited by historical data can best be represented by an arithmetic average of nearby observations?

 

Which method is used to develop a simple model that assumes that weighted averages of recent periods are the best predictors of the future?

 

Simple-exponential smoothing models are useful for data, which have

 

Simple exponential smoothing models differ from moving average models in that

 

Which of the following is a factor in the decision to use exponential smoothing rather than moving-average smoothing to forecast a given time series?

 

The term ‘exponential’ in the exponential smoothing method refers to

 

Which of the following is not correct concerning choosing the appropriate size of the smoothing constant (a or alpha) in the simple exponential smoothing model?

 

The simple exponential smoothing model can be expressed as

 

The same benefits/criticisms apply to moving average and exponential smoothing with the exception of

 

Choosing the appropriate size of the smoothing constant (a) in the simple exponential smoothing model

 

The smoothing constant in the exponential smoothing model

 

Which of the following is not a major problem with exponential smoothing?

 

Which of the following is not considered a smoothing model?

 

Simple Smoothing

 

Note:  The next three questions relate to the following data:

 

Time Period
Actual Series
Forecast Series
Forecast Error
1
100
100
0
2
110
—
—
3
115
—
—
 

If a smoothing constant of .3 is used, what is the exponentially smoothed forecast for period 4?

 

What is the forecast error for period 3?

 

If a three-month moving-average model is used, what is the forecast for period 4?

 

If the smoothing constant were chosen to be unity, the exponential smoothing model would equal

 

What do moving-average smoothing and exponential smoothing have in common?

 

The smoothing constant (a) of the simple exponential smoothing model

 

In the Holt’s two-parameter smoothing model, the trend smoothing parameter Gamma

 

Holt’s forecasted values

 

The Holt’s forecasting model uses:

 

Holt’s smoothing is best applied to data that are

 

Holt’s model accounts for any growth factor present in a time series by

 

Winter’s exponential smoothing

 

Which of the following is not an aspect of the Winter’s exponential smoothing model?

 

If the time series of interest is highly random, the seasonal smoothing constant (Beta) of the Winter’s model should be set

 

How many parameters must the forecaster (or the software) set using Winter’s exponential smoothing?

 

In the Adaptive-Response-Rate Single Exponential Smoothing model, the smoothing parameter

 

The Adaptive-Response-Rate Single Exponential Smoothing model is termed adaptive because

 

The Adaptive-Response-Rate Single Exponential Smoothing model can be amended to handle seasonal data by

 

The simple equation above represents

 

The simple equation above represents

 

Growth models like those used in ForecastX usually model situations well where a process grows

 

The growth models used in ForecastX are sometimes called

 

The “L” independent variable in the growth models we examined represents

 

When using a growth model under the assumption that constant improvement becomes harder to achieve as growth takes place, the best model to use is

 

“Event Models” as used in ForecastX

 

“Events” in an Event model could include

 

Smoothing 2

  

Consider the ForecastX printout above. This is the forecast for a manufactured product.

 

Consider the ForecastX printout above.

 

Consider the ForecastX printout above. The seasonal index 4 has a value of 1.14. This indicates

 

The Gamma factor above is given as 0.00.

 

In the ForecastX model presented above

 

In event models

 

Winters

  

Consider the Audit Trail statistics for a Winters model above.

 

In the Winters smoothing model above

 

In the Winters model shown above index 1 refers to quarter 1 in the data.

 

In the Winters model above “Decomposition Type”

 

The Winters model above

 

Growth

  

Consider the growth model Audit Trail statistics shown above. The “Maximum” shown here as 1,200.00

 

In the growth model Audit Trail shown above a Gompertz Curve was probably selected because

 

In the growth model Audit Trail shown above the saturation point is

 

A Logistics Model assumes

 

In the Bass Model the p coefficient (as used in ForecastX)

 

The Bass Model

 

When forecasting the adoption of cellular telephones with the Bass Model

 

medfly

  

The first 23 observations in a data set involving the mortality of medflies is shown above. The column titled “living” indicates the number of living flies in each day of the experiment.

 

Consider that you wish to predict the outcome of the experiment only ten days into the experiment. That is, you wish to forecast when the last medfly will expire. You do so with the model shown above.

 

What method was used to fit the model to the original ten data points?

 

On approximately what date is the medfly population living expected to reach zero?

 

The model chosen for this estimation was probably chosen because

 

When specifying the model used above some limits were probably set by the forecaster. These would probably have been

 

The model above represents the forecast model for a particular UPC of Lysol Disinfectant Spray. The underlying model used here is

 

For the Lysol model estimated above

 

In the Lysol model estimated above

 

In an Event Model the term “load”

 

smoothing 3

 

In running an exponential smoothing model the following results were obtained:

  

The Beta value listed above indicates that the model

 

In the smoothing model listed above (assuming January is the first month in the data set)

 

In the smoothing model above, the Gamma coefficient reported

 

For the smoothing model shown above, the product that is modeled is probably most like which of the following products in terms of its yearly sales pattern?

 

Consider the smoothing model results shown in the following graph of actual and predicted sales:

 

The darker line above is the actual data and the lighter line is the fitted data.

 

Which of the following would be a likely set of parameters to see in this exponential smoothing estimate?

 

Consider the Bass model results shown below:

 

This model predicts percentage of adoptions over time for a particular product. The results show

 

Which of the following statements about any moving-averages series is correct?

 

Which of the following is the best general definition of exponential smoothing?

 

An exponential smoothing technique that adds a trend smoothing constant  to the single-parameter exponential smoothing technique is known as

 

The simple moving average technique

 

Which of the following is true concerning the smoothing parameter (a) used in exponential smoothing?

 

Given demands, D1 = 20, D2 = 16, and D3 = 12, what is F5 using the naive forecasting method?