BUSI 405 Quiz 4 Classification Models solutions complete answers

BUSI 405 Quiz 4 Classification Models solutions complete answers 

 

In the classical time-series decomposition model, up-and-down swings of a variable around the trend (typically lasting from one to several years each and differing in length and amplitude from one occurrence to the next) are known as

 

Another name for an algorithm output?

 

In standard "business forecasting" we have been seeking verification of previously held hypotheses. In data mining, on the other hand,

 

What is the major problem when using time-series smoothing techniques to forecast the cyclical component of a time series?

 

In data mining terminology, "scoring" refers to

 

Which statement is not correct?

 

Consider the equation below.

  

This equation is the basis of

 

Which of the following is not a technique used to generate forecasts with time series decomposition?

 

In a Naїve Bayes model it is necessary

 

When estimating a k-Nearest Neighbor model we use a subset of the total data we have available

 

"Tree Pruning" seeks to

 

For the Logistic Regression using the Universal Bank data, the Pseudo-R2 reported by XLMiner™ was 0.6544. The lift chart was given as:

 

Consider the Logistic Regression Model for the Universal Bank data.

 

In data mining to "score"

 

When using data mining techniques we usually

 

A "target" in data mining

 

A company has computed a seasonal index for its quarterly sales. Which of the following statements is not correct?

 

Which classification technique that we covered assumed that the attributes had independent distributions?

 

Which forecasting model identifies and forecasts component factors that influence the level of a time series?

 

Data
 
 
Data source
Data!$A$5:$N$2504
 
 
Selected variables
ID
Age
Experience
Income
Zip Code
Family
CCAvg
Education
Partitioning Method
Randomly chosen
Random Seed
12345
# training rows
1250
# Validation rows
750
# test rows
500
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
Selected Variables
Row Id
ID
Age
Experience
Income
Zip Code
Family
CCAvg
Education
 
1
 
 
1
 
 
25
 
 
1
 
 
49
 
 
91107
 
 
4
 
 
1.60
 
 
1
 
 
4
 
 
4
 
 
35
 
 
9
 
 
100
 
 
94112
 
 
1
 
 
2.70
 
 
2
 
 
5
 
 
5
 
 
35
 
 
8
 
 
45
 
 
91330
 
 
4
 
 
1.00
 
 
2
 
 
6
 
 
6
 
 
37
 
 
13
 
 
29
 
 
92121
 
 
4
 
 
0.40
 
 
2
 
 
9
 
 
9
 
 
35
 
 
10
 
 
81
 
 
90089
 
 
3
 
 
0.60
 
 
2
 
 
10
 
 
10
 
 
34
 
 
9
 
 
180
 
 
93023
 
 
1
 
 
8.90
 
 
3
 
 
12
 
 
12
 
 
29
 
 
5
 
 
45
 
 
90277
 
 
3
 
 
0.10
 
 
2
 
 
17
 
 
17
 
 
38
 
 
14
 
 
130
 
 
95010
 
 
4
 
 
4.70
 
 
3
 
 
18
 
 
18
 
 
42
 
 
18
 
 
81
 
 
94305
 
 
4
 
 
2.40
 
 
1
 
 
21
 
 
21
 
 
56
 
 
31
 
 
25
 
 
94015
 
 
4
 
 
0.90
 
 
2
 
 
26
 
 
26
 
 
43
 
 
19
 
 
29
 
 
94305
 
 
3
 
 
0.50
 
 
1
 
 
The Universal Bank data represented above has been partitioned with what percentages?

 

In the k-Nearest Neighbor algorithm the attributes are translated to _________.

 

The range of economic activity from the beginning trough of an expansion to the peak of the expansion is called

 

The three standard categories of data mining tools are

 

For the Universal Bank Confusion Matrix shown the calculated model misclassification rate is

 

Audit Trail - Statistics 

Accuracy Measures
Value
 
Forecast Statistics
Value
AIC
309.51
 
Durbin Watson(4)
1.01
BIC
313.82
 
Mean
61.54
Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)
3.11
%
Standard Deviation
12.70
R-Square
95.64
%
Variance
161.41
Adjusted R-Square
95.57
%
Ljung-Box
58.17
Root Mean Square Error
2.63
 
 
 
Theil
0.29
 
 
 
 
 Method Statistics
Value
 
Method Selected
Decomposition
 
Basic Method
Trend (Linear) Regression
 
Decomposition Type
Multiplicative
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Components of Decomposition 

Date
Original
Data
Forecasted
Data
Centered
Moving Average
CMA
Trend
Seasonal
Indices
Cycle
Factors
Sep-1998
56.60
 
 
 
0.90
 
Oct-1998
49.10
 
 
 
1.09
 
Nov-1998
58.50
58.93
55.21
62.51
1.07
0.88
Dec-1998
57.50
54.10
57.63
62.45
0.94
0.92
Jan-1999
54.90
55.26
61.16
62.40
0.90
0.98
Feb-1999
70.10
66.69
61.16
62.35
1.09
0.98
Mar-1999
65.80
64.10
60.05
62.29
1.07
0.96
Apr-1999
50.20
55.93
59.58
62.24
0.94
0.96
May-1999
53.30
53.27
58.96
62.19
0.90
0.95
Jun-1999
67.90
64.62
59.26
62.13
1.09
0.95
Jul-1999
63.10
65.27
61.15
62.08
1.07
0.99
Aug-1999
55.30
60.18
64.10
62.03
0.94
1.03
Sep-1999
63.30
61.55
68.13
61.97
0.90
1.10
Oct-1999
81.50
78.71
72.19
61.92
1.09
1.17
Nov-1999
81.70
79.51
74.49
61.87
1.07
1.20
Dec-1999
69.20
70.60
75.20
61.82
0.94
1.22
Jan-2000
67.80
67.77
75.01
61.76
0.90
1.21
Feb-2000
82.70
81.01
74.30
61.71
1.09
1.20
Mar-2000
79.00
78.17
73.24
61.66
1.07
1.19
Apr-2000
66.20
67.71
72.13
61.60
0.94
1.17
May-2000
62.30
64.50
71.39
61.55
0.90
1.16
Jun-2000
79.30
77.40
70.99
61.50
1.09
1.15
Jul-2000
76.50
75.12
70.38
61.44
1.07
1.15
Aug-2000
65.50
64.11
68.29
61.39
0.94
1.11
Sep-2000
58.10
58.80
65.09
61.34
0.90
1.06
Oct-2000
66.80
67.90
62.28
61.28
1.09
1.02
Nov-2000
63.40
64.39
60.33
61.23
1.07
0.99
Dec-2000
56.10
56.10
59.05
61.18
0.94
0.97
 
Consider the time series decomposition output for Mobile Home Sales above.

 

Consider the time series decomposition output for Mobile Home Sales above. This decomposition model

 

Classification Models in data mining include all of the following except

 

Suppose you have been given a fair coin and you want to find out the odds of getting heads. Which of the following option is true for such a case?

 

Assume you are asked to create a model that predicts the number of new babies born per period according to the size of the stork population. In this case, the number of babies is

 

In logistic regression the target

 

Which of the following is not a similarity between seasonal and cycle factors?

 

 

The time-series decomposition model presented in Chapter Six is best described as a

 

Which of the following is not a reason why time-series decomposition has gained favor with forecasters and their managers?

 

In time-series decomposition analysis, decomposition refers to:

 

Which of the following is not a component in the time series decomposition model?

 

Which of the following best describes the general approach to forecasting when applying classical time-series decomposition as described in the text?

 

Classical time series decomposition, as described in the text, model seasonality

 

Which of the following is not correct about using moving averages to deseasonalize a time series?

 

Deseasonalizing the data using moving averages

 

When calculating centered moving-averages in time-series decomposition, which of the 

 

When calculating centered moving averages, how many data points are lost for a given time series, when a n-period moving average is used?

 

When calculating centered moving-averages using a 4-period moving average, how many data points are lost at the beginning of the original series?

 

When calculating centered moving-averages using a 4-period moving average, how many data points are lost at both ends of the original series?

 

In time-series decomposition, seasonal factors are calculated by

 

A seasonal index number of .80 for quarter one of an automobile parts manufacturer suggests

 

The sum of seasonal index numbers should equal

 

The sum of seasonal index numbers for monthly data should equal

 

Quarter one sales for a tire manufacturer were $120,000,000. If the quarter one seasonal index was 1.20, what is an estimate of annual sales for this firm?

 

Suppose Nike sales are expected to be 1.2 billion dollars for the year 2009. If the January seasonal index for Nike is .98, what is a reasonable estimate for January 2009 sales revenue?

 

 Seasonal Indexes of sales revenue of People’s Bank are:

 

January
1.20
February
.90
March
1.00
April
1.08
May
1.02
June
1.10
July
1.05
August
.90
September
.85
October
1.00
November
1.10
December
.80
 

 
Total revenue for People’s Bank in 2009 is forecasted to be $60,000. Based on the seasonal indexes above, sales in the first three months of 2009 should be:

 

If December 1999 revenue for People’s Bank amounted to $5,000, a reasonable estimate of revenue for January 2000, based on the seasonal indexes given above would be:

 

If revenue of People’s Bank amounted to $5,500 in November 2009; the November 2009 sales revenue, after adjustment for seasonal variation using the indexes given above, would be:

 

In computing a seasonal index, specific seasonals were tabulated for each month. The averages over time for the twelve months were obtained and summed.  If the mean seasonal factor for June was 96.9, and the sum for all twelve months is 1195; the adjusted seasonal index for June is:

 

Assume the following specific seasonal factors for January based on the ratio-to-moving average method:

  

What is the seasonal index for January using the modified mean method?

 

The following specific seasonal factors were estimated for the month of October:

  

If the adjustment is .98 and the modified mean is used, and if the expected trend for October is $800, which of the following is closest to the seasonally adjusted forecast?

 

The long-term trend of a time series in the decomposition model is estimated using

 

Consider the following data:

  

Which linear trend model best fits this data?

 

Which trend model would you choose if the variable you are seeking to forecast were increasing at a constant percentage rate?

 

The cyclical component of a time series is measured by

 

A cycle factor

 

Which data series is not used in the calculation of cycle factors?

 

A researcher mistakenly uses deseasonalized data in calculating the seasonal factors. The calculated seasonal factors are likely to be:

 

The Sky-Is-Falling forecasting firm is predicting a deep recession next year. What would be the average forecasted cycle factor for next year if you believe such a forecast?

 

Which of the following is not helpful in generating forecasts of cycle factors?

 

If business cycles were pure cycles, they

 

Over a long period of time, if measured correctly, cycle factors should average

 

Which of the following is not part of the index of leading economic indicators?

 

Which of the following is not a part of the index of lagging economic indicators?

 

Which of the following statements regarding time series decomposition is not correct?